Trump Weakens Politically as the Battle to Protect Our Democracy Enters 2026

“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold,” is a famous line from William Butler Yeats’s poem, The Second Coming.

In the case of Donald Trump’s second term, however, despite many things falling apart, the center is holding up in important ways. And it is weakening Trump politically.

Of course, Trump still has immense power, and he is exercising it in his inevitably way: autocratically, irresponsibly, abusively and narcissistically.

But concerned Americans and many of our institutions are holding their own.

There are a number of indicators that show Trump’s path has been downhill in recent months.

Citizens and Groups

In October, many groups, such as Indivisible, organized rallies that brought seven million people together around the country, for the record-setting No Kings protest rally against Trump, his policies and his autocratic ways. This was just one in a series of ever-larger rallies held by citizens all over the country, with more to come.

Off-Year Elections

Democrats have crushed Republicans in race after race in 2025, outperforming the 2024 presidential margins in state and local races by an average of 13 points. These results are an indication that former Trump voters are reevaluating Trump and his agenda in a very significant way this year.

Republican Officeholders

Republican officeholders are starting to recognize that Trump cares only about himself, not them, and have begun to break away from the iron grip in which he held them.

Last month, four Republicans, led by conservative Reps Thomas Massie (KY) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA), signed a discharge petition that forced a House vote on legislation to require public disclosure of the Epstein files. The House then voted 427 to 1 in favor of the legislation – and the Senate voted unanimously. It was a humiliating loss for Trump, who had been opposed to the legislation until just before the vote, when it became clear he would lose big at which point he reversed his position.

Playing the role of the canary in the coal mine, Greene said Tuesday that the “dam is breaking” on Trump’s hold on his party. She said that Trump has “real problems with Republicans within the House and the Senate” and that he is out of touch with voters on issues like affordability.

Just yesterday, Trump’s iron grip on congressional Republicans slipped further again when four House Republicans abandoned him and his loyal follower, House Speaker Mike Johnson, by signing a discharge petition that will bring a three-year extension of the Obamacare subsidies to the House floor. Trump has been an adamant opponent of Obamacare since its beginning.

Last week, twenty House Republicans challenged Trump directly by voting with House Democrats to overturn Trump’s executive order that had taken away collective bargaining rights for federal employees. These Republicans made the difference in passing the proposal in the House by 231 to 195.

Finally, also last week, 21 Republicans in the Indiana State Senate joined with 10 Democrats to defeat, by a vote of 31 to 19, a proposal to redistrict the Indiana congressional districts. The majority of Republicans in the Indiana State Senate – 21 of 40 – said no to Trump’s all-out pressure campaign to gerrymander the Indiana House seats.

Polls

Some recent polls show Trump at his lowest levels of public support.

For example, a Gallup Poll in November found disapproval of Trump at 60 percent. An AP Poll in December found Trump at 61 percent job disapproval.

On key issues, the AP poll found disapproval of Trump on the economy at 67 percent. Even on immigration, usually his most popular issue, the poll found disapproval of Trump has reached 60 percent.

The Lower Federal Courts

The lower federal courts are the American institution that has most consistently and fearlessly challenged Trump. These judges appointed by both Republican and Democratic presidents (including Trump), have repeatedly said “no” to Trump’s policies and put numerous roadblocks in the way of his administration’s illegal and unconstitutional efforts.

According to Lawfare there are currently 253 active cases pending against Trump and his administration. According to Just Security, as of mid-December, 94 cases have led to court orders temporarily blocking Trump administration efforts and 48 cases have resulted in orders that permanently blocked those efforts.

There are no illusions about whether Trump will continue to do enormous damage to our country, and continue to rip off his office and the American people to enrich himself in the coming months. But the resistance to Trump and his administration is strong and getting stronger – and Trump is getting politically weaker.

Following the wise guidance of the late civil rights icon, Rep. John Lewis, we will “Never Give Up. Never Give In.”

And we are never going away.

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We will be off for the next two weeks for the Holidays and will return on January 8, 2026.

Fred’s Weekly Note appears on Thursdays in Wertheimer’s Political Report, a Democracy 21 newsletter. Read this week’s newsletter, and other recent editions, here. And subscribe for free here and receive your copy each week via email.