President Trump’s Dangerous Poll Numbers

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FRED WERTHEIMER’S WEEKLY NOTE | July 26, 2018freadshot

“President Trump is currently paying a big price with the American people for his irrational and often irresponsible approach to governing our country.”

Recent polls confirm that President Trump’s Helsinki summit was a disaster for the President, with a Quinnipiac poll, for example, showing Trump’s approval rating at 38 percent approval, 58 percent disapproval.

An NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist poll this week, had Trump with 39 percent approval /51 percent disapproval. This poll also found “a staggering 43-point gender gap with 62 percent of women disapproving of Trump’s job and half of men approving of his performance.”

Perhaps the most troubling poll from Trump’s standpoint is an NBC News/Marist poll done in three key midwestern states, including Michigan and Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and were key to his victory, and Minnesota, which he lost by just one percentage point.

According to this poll, Trump had 36 percent approval/54 percent disapproval in Michigan, 36 percent approval/52 percent disapproval in Wisconsin, and 38 percent approval/51 percent disapproval in Minnesota.

These are very dangerous numbers for President Trump.

We often hear how well President Trump is doing with his Republican base, with support ranging from 80-90%.

But this needs to be kept in perspective.

According to a June Gallup poll, 43% of Americans identify themselves as independents, 29% as Democrats, and 27% as Republicans. Thus, even if Trump has 90% support from Republicans that comes down to less than 25% of the country.

The key groups to watch here are independents – who make up the largest block of voters – and women and the extent of the gender gap. In both cases Trump is currently doing very poorly.

Poll numbers can change rapidly and polling during an off-year congressional election is often very different during a presidential year election.

Nevertheless, President Trump is currently paying a big price with the American people for his irrational and often irresponsible approach to governing our country.

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Fred Wertheimer is the Founder and President of Democracy 21, a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that works to strengthen our democracy and ensure the integrity and fairness of government decisions and elections.