The Next Two Years Will Be A Political & Legal Roller Coaster

Fred Wertheimer’s Weekly Note | December 8, 2022

The House Jan. 6th Committee is scheduled to release its final report on December 21. The report is expected to include criminal referrals to the Justice Department, including a referral for former President Donald Trump.

The Committee did a superb job in educating the American people and documenting for history what happened in the first effort to steal a presidential election in American history and the first mob attack on the Capitol since the attack by the British in 1814.

The Jan. 6th Committee’s report will be one of the final actions of this Congress as the country moves into a new two-year phase with the incoming 118th Congress in January.

The incoming House, under the control of the Republican ideological right, has already announced it will launch multiple investigations, including one of Hunter Biden, with the real goal of attempting to get President Biden.

The Senate, with a 51-member Democratic majority that will give it subpoena power, also is setting out a plan for multiple investigations, including into the business deals of Jared Kushner as he worked in the White House on Middle East issues that may have related to his business deals.

The new 118th Congress will be known as the “Investigations Congress.”

And, while the House and Senate will also pass their own policy bills, it’s unlikely that much will be enacted.

From Day One, the Republican House and Democratic Senate will have an eye on the 2024 elections and will be acting with a focus on passing bills to position them for enactment in the 119th Congress.

On Friday, Politico reported that Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema will leave the Democratic Party to become an Independent. With that development, there will be 48 Democratic and three Independent Senators, and 49 Republican Senators. Sinema told Politico she is not joining the Republican Party and that she doesn’t “anticipate that anything will change about the Senate structure.” If so, Senate Democrats will have a 51-vote majority for purposes of organizing the Senate, including having majorities on committees and subpoena power.

With a one-vote Senate majority, Democrats face a hard road ahead to hold the Senate in 2024. There are now 20 Democrats and three Independent Senators up for reelection in 2024, as opposed to just 10 Republicans. But, with House Republicans holding a slim four-vote majority and 20 Republicans representing districts won by Biden, Democrats have a very good chance of taking back the House in 2024.

Meanwhile, we are moving into a new phase of the three major Trump criminal investigations.

The Fulton County, Georgia investigation into Trump’s efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 election results is likely the furthest along and decisions on whether to indict Trump and others for state violations is expected in the next few months.

The Justice Department is conducting two criminal investigations into Trump’s activities, both now led by Jack Smith, the special counsel appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

In one, the Department is looking into Trump’s improper taking and storage of classified and top-secret documents. Decisions about whether to indict in the Mar-a-Lago case could come at any time in the next few months.

The second, larger criminal investigation by DOJ involves the role played by Trump and others in attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election and in the January 6 attack on the Capitol. It could take until the summer or later before a decision is reached.

Another threat to Trump — this one to his business empire — is the lawsuit brought by New York State Attorney General Letitia James against Trump, the Trump Organization, and senior management, including Ivanka, Don Jr., and Eric.

The lawsuit alleges they “engaged in years of financial fraud to obtain a host of economic benefits.” The lawsuit seeks remedies, including removing Trump and his children from their roles at the Trump Organization, banning them from any future business leadership roles in New York, and requiring that they repay $250 million they illegally obtained.

James conducted the investigation in cooperation with Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, who this week obtained a 17-count criminal conviction of the Trump Organization for a tax-fraud scheme.

While Trump was not a defendant in that case, the conviction is the first criminal conviction of the Trump business empire.

Further, the financial stakes are enormous for Trump, his family, and his business empire in the New York state AG lawsuit.

A political and legal roller coaster ride awaits the country over the next two years. So, to paraphrase Bette Davis: Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

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Fred’s Weekly Note appears each Thursday in Wertheimer’s Political Report, a Democracy 21 newsletter. Read this week’s and other recent newsletters here. And, subscribe for free here and receive your copy each week via email.