The Power Of Incumbency

Fred Wertheimer’s Weekly Note | December 1, 2022

There were a number of factors that led to the surprising November election results that showed the predicted Republican “red wave” to have been a mirage.

On the Democratic side, there was the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, the accomplishments of the President and Congress, and the need to protect democracy from Trump and his extreme MAGA followers.

On the Republican side, there were policy issues like inflation, crime, immigration and the border, and the historical record of a newly elected President’s party generally losing a substantial number of seats in Congress after the President’s first two years in office.

But, ultimately, the overriding factor in determining the 2022 national elections was the power of incumbency.

An NBC News poll in August found that found that 74 percent of American voters think things in the nation are “off on the wrong track.”

A Gallup poll this summer found that a significant majority of voters had little or no confidence in Congress, and only seven percent had a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in Congress. According to Gallup, this was a new low for Congress in their polling.

Yet, despite this deep dissatisfaction, congressional incumbents of both parties were overwhelmingly reelected last month.

American voters reelected every incumbent Senator running, with Georgia still being contested. If Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock wins in next week’s runoff, it will mark the first election since 1914 that no incumbent Senator has lost their general election race.

In the House, just nine incumbent Representatives, six Democrats and three Republicans, lost their general election races – a reelection rate of 98 percent. (Other Representatives lost in their primaries for various reasons.)

In addition, only one incumbent Governor seeking reelection was defeated.

The power of incumbency results in enormous campaign finance advantages.

Senate incumbents running in 2022 spent, on average, $15.6 million, compared with $3.4 million spent, on average, by their challengers, according to Open Secrets. (This does not include spending in the Georgia Warnock/Walker race, which is still in play, and does not count spending by outside groups.)

House incumbents winning reelection in 2022 spent, on average, $2.2 million compared with $402,000 spent, on average, by their challengers, according to Open Secrets.

One of the most important developments in the midterms was the overwhelming defeat of election deniers running for state offices in presidential battleground states that would have given them the ability to oversee and attempt to rig the election process.

With the exception of Arizona – ground zero for the election-deniers’ movement – where some battles are still going on, there have been almost no efforts to overturn the results of this year’s elections.

Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, with the support of Trump, is trying to overturn her loss by more than 17,000 votes to Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. There is no apparent basis for doing so.

Cochise County, a traditionally Republican county in Arizona, has illegally refused to certify the county’s election results, even though this could cost Republicans both a U.S.  House race and the statewide office of schools Superintendent. A lawsuit has been filed by the Secretary of State to mandate the County to certify. This could become an important test case.

Arizona shows, as I have written before, that the election-deniers’ movement is not gone nor is the threat they pose.

Former President Trump created and continues to lead the election-denier movement, doing all he can to ready his followers to attack the results of the 2024 presidential election if a Democrat wins, regardless of the actual vote count.

Democracy supporters will continue to combat efforts by these election deniers to advance their movement and will continue to work to protect the integrity of our democracy and elections.

This fight goes on.

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Fred’s Weekly Note appears each Thursday in Wertheimer’s Political Report, a Democracy 21 newsletter. Read this week’s and other recent newsletters here. And, subscribe for free here and receive your copy each week via email.